Research

Fiscal and inflation:

Transfers, Excess Savings, and Large Fiscal Multipliers

Labor markets:

What Caused the Beveridge Curve to Shift Higher in the United States During the Pandemic? with Michael Girard

Nowcasting:

Gauging the Globe: The Bank’s Approach to Nowcasting World GDP with Andrej Sokol

Structural VARs:

Signing-out Confounding Shocks (AEA Papers and Proceedings). Early version available with online appendix with Neville Francis

Technological and non-technological drivers of productivity dynamics in developed and emerging market economies (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control) with Alistair Dieppe and Neville Francis

The Identification of Dominant Macroeconomic Drivers: Coping with Confounding Shocks with Alistair Dieppe and Neville Francis Previous: New approaches to the identification of low frequency drivers: An application to technology shocks

Technology shocks and employment:

The technology-employment trade-off: industry, automation, and income effects

Policy publications, working papers:

World Bank Global Economic Prospects Report: Fading promise: How to rekindle productivity growth with Alistair Dieppe

Productivity Convergence: Is anyone catching up? with Cedric Okou

Productivity: Technology, Demand, and Employment Trade-offs with Alistair Dieppe and Neville Francis

Global Productivity Trends with Alistair Dieppe and Sinem Kilic-Celik

Bank of England Blogs:

Low real interest rates: depression economics, not secular trends

The world trade slowdown (redux)

Global inflation, a laboured process

Oil is not as it seems.